Syria’s reinstatement to Arab fold contingent on Saudi Arabia

It is quite clear that Syria is no longer isolated by its Arab neighbors after 12 years of civil war between Syrians and the international proxy war. However, the return of Syria under the leadership of President Bashar Al-Assad is contingent upon the Saudi stance.

After the devastating earthquakes and severe aftershocks that struck Syria and Turkey and claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people since February 6, several Arab countries rushed to send support and assistance to Syrian victims in areas controlled by Assad, while the humanitarian aid to the opposition-controlled areas in Aleppo and Lattika was delayed for several days.

Although the ongoing humanitarian assistance by Arab countries to Syria showed a sign of humanity, it implies “Arab openness” to the Syrian regime after Foreign Ministers, Prime Ministers and parliament speakers of Arab countries like Jordan, the UAE, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq and Libya went to Damascus where they voiced their support to Syrians following the earthquake.

The first visit was paid by a Lebanese Ministerial delegation on February 8, two days after the quakes, followed by UAE Foreign and International Cooperation Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

On Sunday, February 26, Assad received the parliament speakers of Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Libya, Egypt and the UAE, in addition to other representatives from Oman and Lebanon, the Syrian state-owned news agency SANA reported.

The most recent visit was by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on February 27, when he voiced Egypt’s message of solidarity with Syria, saying, “We are ready to provide more to alleviate the suffering of the brotherly Syrian people,” according to a statement from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

Assad himself visited the Sultanate of Oman, the first Arab country visited by the Syrian leader in 12 years and the first Gulf state that appointed an ambassador to Syria, in March 2020, since the outbreak of the war.

The current international movements are in favor of humanitarian relief operations, but they also carry a political connotation, according to Gamal Salama, an Egyptian political analyst and expert on Middle Eastern political affairs.

“I expect that there will be convergence, but this matter depends on the Saudi position as Saudi politics is influential as a whole at the level of the Arab League or at the level of other Arab countries,” Salama told Jusoor Post.

“Any rapprochement that does not include Saudi Arabia will falter, and therefore I believe that Saudi Arabia will have the final word on it. This rapprochement is imminent,” he continued.

It is worth mentioning that the political advisor to Assad, Buthaina Shaaban, told Sham FM on May 27, 2021 that her country is making great efforts to improve relations with Saudi Arabia. She noted that the visit made by the Syrian tourism minister to Riyadh in May of the same year “was not possible in the past years,” describing the visit as positive.

Also, the Saudi intelligence chief met with his Syrian counterpart in Damascus on May 5, 2021, Al Monitor reported. 

Egyptian political expert Abdelmajeed Al-Syassi told Jusoor Post that “the recent meetings with Assad and his Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad showed an Arab openness to the Syrian regime.” However, when it comes to returning to the Arab League, Syassi believes the situation relies on Saudi Arabia even after Damascus took some procedures to restore its membership, which had been suspended since November 2011.

The political expert added that Algeria last year tried to help Syria return to the league, but this was unsuccessful due to the Saudi stance, in addition to the fact that the Syrian political crisis has not been resolved yet.

Not spur-of-the-moment rapprochement

The reinstatement of Syria to the 22-member Arab League following the suspension of its membership in 2012 over the civil war is not a spur-of-the-moment diplomatic attitude. However, it emerged in 2018 when the UAE and Bahrain announced that they re-opened embassies in Damascus.

In 2021, regional calls for re-instating Syria to the Arab League were voiced again by the UAE when Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in a press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Abu Dhabi, promoted the reinstatement of war-torn Syria to the Arab League, saying that the government and private sector “could play a role” in returning Syria “to normal” after years of war, AP reported. One year earlier, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan called President Assad, “marking the first direct contact between an Arab leader and the Syrian president since 2011.”

The first meeting for Shoukry and his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad was on September 25, 2021, at the headquarters of the Egyptian mission in New York City on the sidelines of the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly.